State of Retail Report: 2025 Mid-Year Outlook & Holiday Preview

The first half of 2025 has been a study in contrasts for the U.S. retail sector. Despite rising inflation, slowing GDP growth, and tariff-related pressures, consumer spending has proven more durable than sentiment suggests. Buoyed by job growth and real wage gains, U.S. shoppers continue to spend—albeit more selectively—with value, timing, and necessity shaping their behavior.

PMG’s latest State of Retail report provides a mid-year checkpoint for brands navigating this complexity. As planning intensifies for the second half of the year, including the Q4 holiday season, the report provides a data-driven readout for advertisers on the latest macroeconomic forces, consumer trends, media strategies, and promotional insights. 

What You’ll Learn in This Report

The 2025 State of Retail: Mid-Year Outlook & Holiday Preview includes:

• A macroeconomic checkpoint summarizing the ripple effects of tariffs, inflation trends, and consumer confidence shifts, plus their implications for demand elasticity across categories.

• A look at real-time consumer behavior, including spending patterns from January to May, and a breakdown of the disconnect between sentiment and transaction-level data.

• Key planning signals, including how July’s Prime Day, August CPI data, and back-to-school sales will shape Q4 readiness.

• Holiday 2025 scenario planning, with base and downside forecasts that model how price sensitivity and promotional demand might evolve.

Brands that succeed in the second half of 2025 will be those that lead with relevance, adapt to shifting demand, and deliver value without defaulting to discounts. From media pacing to in-store strategies, the decisions made now will impact brand outcomes during the 2025 holiday season.