Adapting Paid Social Strategies for a Complex Q4 Landscape

As the macroeconomic backdrop remains uncertain heading into Q4, paid social strategies must continue to evolve. Inflationary pressures, shifting consumer behavior, and the continued integration of AI into media platforms are creating a more complex landscape for social investment. In this environment, brands can no longer rely solely on last-click efficiencies or end-of-year media surges to drive results. Instead, performance will depend on early planning, full-funnel investment, and a disciplined approach to automation, creative quality, and platform diversification.

The cost of participating in direct-response (DR) paid social strategies continues to rise, with CPCs increasing across platforms, particularly in low-funnel conversion-only program strategies. In parallel, auction environments are only becoming more competitive. However, we’re seeing CPC efficiencies in traffic-driving and mid-funnel strategies, which can deliver more cost-effective reach and qualified traffic to site. Brands that invest in a balanced approach of combining DR with traffic campaigns are best positioned to unlock greater efficiencies across their total paid social program.

Early-season media activation remains critical. Brands that begin awareness investment in late Q3 or early Q4 are more likely to capture consideration ahead of key conversion periods such as Cyber Week. Early‐season media activation remains critical. With 32% of U.S. shoppers planning to begin their holiday shopping before Thanksgiving, and 21% of consumers already having started their holiday shopping as of July 1, brands that invest in awareness in late Q3 or early Q4 are more likely to be top of mind heading into key conversion periods, such as Cyber Week. While these early campaigns may yield lower immediate conversion rates, they build brand familiarity and audience pools that meaningfully improve downstream performance.

Strategic Consideration: Finalize Q4 paid social budgets early, prioritizing allocation strategies that balance DR investment with traffic and mid-funnel initiatives. Ensure meaningful early investment to prime performance ahead of peak conversion periods. Within traffic efforts, incorporate testing of campaigns optimized for purchase across both static and dynamic formats to efficiently scale quality traffic while simultaneously strengthening lower-funnel results.

Automation-led campaign types are now essential to driving paid social efficiency and scale. On Meta, combining Advantage+ Shopping with cost-cap bidding enables brands to grow ROAS while holding CPA targets. TikTok’s Smart+ Campaigns and Pinterest’s Performance+ offer similar opportunities, with Pinterest, in particular, proving to be a “workhorse” since the last holiday season, delivering consistent efficiency and a competitive ROAS. Snapchat is also showing strong potential in the performance space, with its new target cost ROAS bidding solution generating positive initial third-party results and delivering the most competitive revenue return to date across its suite of performance ad products.

Advertisers should consider testing Meta’s Value rules within Advantage+ Shopping campaigns to help drive the highest possible return on margin, even during heavy promotional periods. Pairing these value-based optimizations with strong creative inputs, well-optimized product feeds, and intentional bid strategies ensures automation is working toward both efficiency and profitability goals.

Strategic Consideration: Focus on refining automation-led campaigns through cost-cap bidding and value-based bidding strategies, including testing Meta’s Value rules, to optimize for both efficiency and profitability. When it comes to value and volume optimization, we often recommend that brands consider these strategies in tandem to maximize multiple business objectives. Ensure product feeds and metadata are accurate, consistent, and seasonally aligned to maximize the impact of automation.

With short-form video dominating user behavior, platforms like Reels, Shorts, and TikTok remain essential for paid social success. US users now spend approximately 61% of their social media time consuming video content, and short-form formats are no longer just upper-funnel tools, as they are increasingly driving meaningful conversion volume. With mobile shopping projected to account for nearly a third of incremental holiday sales, brands must prioritize mobile-first creative that is designed for small-screen viewing and optimized for seamless mobile checkout. This approach allows advertisers to bring the impact of the big screen to the small screen, capturing fragmented viewership and converting all viable intent.

Incorporating a diverse mix of brand-led creative, user-generated content, and creator partnerships not only fuels engagement and builds authenticity but also promotes creative differentiation within a paid social program. This variety acts as a powerful targeting lever to reach new users, expand audience reach, and drive early algorithmic efficiency. Over time, this approach helps unlock greater scale and stronger overall efficiency across campaigns.

Strategic Consideration: Develop a mobile-first short-form video strategy that balances brand, UGC, and creator content to maximize reach, scale, and efficiency. Ensure all creative is optimized for mobile checkout, and test multiple formats and hooks to identify top performers early. Use high-performing variations to engage new audiences, convert viewers, and strengthen results across the funnel.

Holiday sales grew 4.3% last year, the strongest rate of growth since 2021, fueled by the combined strength of mobile commerce and in-store shopping. This resurgence in brick-and-mortar presents new opportunities for brands to activate omnichannel optimization levers across platforms and capture both online and offline demand.

Meta’s omnichannel optimization product enables advertisers to optimize campaigns for both in-store and online sales, ensuring that spend is directed toward the highest-value conversions. Platforms like Snapchat also remain strong contenders for drive-to-store initiatives, leveraging robust location-based signals and new Sponsored Places high-impact ad solutions to reach shoppers near points of purchase. Testing into these capabilities can help brands bridge digital engagement with physical store traffic, driving incremental holiday sales.

Strategic Consideration: Incorporate omnichannel optimization strategies into Q4 paid social plans to capture both e-commerce and in-store demand. Test Meta’s omnichannel optimization and Snapchat’s location-based ad solutions to expand reach, maximize conversion opportunities, and drive measurable impact across all sales channels.

The holiday season is one of the most competitive periods for paid social, with platform performance shifting rapidly based on auction dynamics, creative fatigue, and consumer behavior. Brands that have contingency plans and a strong platform diversification strategy in place are best positioned to adapt in real time, ensuring budgets can be reallocated quickly to follow performance trends and capture the highest-value opportunities.

This diversification should include both established platforms like Meta, TikTok, Pinterest, and Snapchat, as well as emerging channels that can offer incremental reach and cost efficiencies. By maintaining an active presence across multiple platforms, brands can mitigate risk, optimize for the strongest ROAS and CPA performance at any given moment, and ensure campaigns remain agile during key promotional windows.

Strategic Consideration: Develop a holiday contingency framework that includes a cross-platform optimization plan spanning both established and emerging social platforms. Set clear performance thresholds and budget reallocation protocols to shift spend toward the highest-performing channels in real time, protecting efficiency and maximizing total conversion volume.