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Resilient Retail Amid a Cautious Recovery: What Brands Need to Know for Europe’s Second Half

July 31, 2025 | 3 min read

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PMG

PMG is a global independent marketing services and technology company that seeks to inspire people and brands that anything is possible. Driven by shared success, PMG brings together business strategy and transformation, creative, media, and insights, all powered by our proprietary marketing operating system, Alli. With offices in New York, London, Dallas & Fort Worth, Austin, Atlanta, Boston, Brighton, Costa Rica, and Cleveland, our team is made up of 1,000 employees globally, and our work for brands like Apple, CKE Restaurants, Dropbox, Experian, Intuit, Kimberly-Clark, Kohler, Sephora, Travelex, and Whole Foods has received top industry recognitions including Cannes Lions and Adweek Media Plan of the Year.

While economic pressures persist across Europe, the first half of 2025 has underscored the durability of European retail. Stabilising inflation, resilient spending, and a rebound in consumer confidence have given way to a more complex retail environment—one defined by localised disparities and growing reliance on value and flexibility.

PMG’s Mid-Year 2025 Outlook for Europe Report offers a timely readout for brands navigating these shifts. Building on our macroeconomic analyses and portfolio insights, this report examines the consumer and media trends influencing the region’s retail landscape as we enter the second half of the year, including the critical Q4 peak season.

The Mid-Year 2025 Outlook for Europe Report includes:

  • A macroeconomic checkpoint, summarising inflation trends, GDP projections, consumer spending insights, and more.

  • Consumer outlook and behavioural shifts, highlighting how value, promotional agility, and selective splurging are shaping demand across income groups.

  • Emerging disruptors, including the acceleration of AI adoption, the continued rise of retail media, and how social video is flattening the traditional funnel.

  • Scenario planning for peak 2025, with forecasts modelling how price sensitivity and promotional windows may influence performance during the holiday period. 

With inflation cooling unevenly and consumers weighing value more carefully, pockets of opportunity remain. Looking ahead, strategic flexibility will remain critical, as brands that respond to real-time signals, localise their media and creative, and deliver relevance across touchpoints will be best positioned to outperform in the months ahead.

Download the full report to learn more.