2026 Midterm Media Costs: What PMG Is Seeing & How Advertisers Should Respond

As the midterm cycle accelerates toward Election Day, political campaigns and holiday advertisers are increasingly competing for the same moments of consumer attention. That overlap is taking shape differently across markets, inventory pools, and channels. PMG’s integrated view across broadcast, CTV, social, and search shows the clearest cost variation in local broadcast, stable pricing patterns across comparable CTV inventory, social costs below last year, and localized paid search exposure as of mid-October.

Together, these findings show pockets where election pressure is material and others where normal Q4 dynamics remain the strongest influence. Advertisers can use that distinction to protect priority inventory, pay a temporary premium when reach warrants it, or shift timing, targeting, or channel mix when another option offers greater value.

Political Spending Forecasts Concentrate Demand in Video and Key Battlegrounds

AdImpact projects $11.6 billion in political advertising across the 2025–2026 cycle, up 30% from the $8.9 billion spent during the 2022 midterms and above the 2024 presidential cycle’s $11.2 billion. Broadcast television represents $5.6 billion, or 48%, and CTV $2.7 billion, or 23%, placing 71% of forecast spending in video; digital platforms account for $1.6 billion. These full-cycle estimates identify where demand may concentrate, while observed pricing and performance determine the impact on advertisers.

Congressional and statewide races are driving the concentration of spending in the 2026 cycle. Through September 30, Ohio and Texas accounted for 47% of the more than $935 million aired in Senate battleground general elections, or about $440 million. The FCC’s lowest unit charge window during the final 60 days gives legally qualified candidates access to the lowest comparable rate and can tighten local availability and scheduling. For non-political advertisers, prices continue to reflect broader auction and inventory conditions. 

These dynamics make market-level data the most useful guide to an individual brand’s costs. Combining that context with audience priorities and performance data helps advertisers identify where election conditions materially affect the people and business outcomes that matter most.

Broadcast Pricing Varies Widely by Market

Kinetiq Political Insights’ September forecast shows uneven broadcast pricing. For comparable 300-GRP schedules across 111 rated markets, October pricing had a median index of 1.79 against the February–May benchmark; 93 markets, nearly 84%, were above spring levels, while 18 were at or below them. Results ranged from 4.19 in Dayton to 0.42 in Dallas–Fort Worth. Because the comparison spans seasonal periods, it works best as a directional market benchmark considered alongside Q4 demand, inventory mix, and other local conditions.

For advertisers, the broadcast data supports market-level responses based on current pricing, delivery, and performance. A coordinated view across channels can help teams maintain productive investment, accept a temporary premium where reach justifies it, or adjust timing and channel mix when sustained conditions warrant a change.

PMG’s CTV Analysis Shows Stable Pricing Patterns

CTV represents 23% of AdImpact’s forecast political spending. PMG’s comparisons of equivalent inventory across platforms, exchanges, and publishers show stable CPM patterns, with news pricing steady and sports fluctuations within typical non-election ranges. Genre mix and market size explain more variation in programmatic CTV than political intensity. Maine, Alaska, New Hampshire, Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, and Georgia remain priority markets for closer review because of their relatively high political television spending per household. This cross-platform view helps distinguish genuine election pressure from the normal differences among inventory sources, genres, and markets. 

Digital Effects Vary by Platform, Market, and Buying Model

PMG’s digital channel observations follow a similar pattern, with effects concentrated by platform, market, and buying model. Social CPMs are down 4% year over year and up 4.9% from September, showing lower year-over-year costs alongside modest month-over-month movement. Paid search exposure may concentrate in competitive states and on political or policy-related queries during the final 10 to 14 days, making brand and high-intent coverage the priority. 

Political Conversation Creates a Suitability Decision

Platform policies capture only part of a brand’s political environment. TikTok prohibits paid political advertising but permits organic political discussion, allowing brand messages and political content to appear within the same user experience. This makes suitability both a media and creative decision: teams should monitor sentiment and live messaging alongside costs, particularly when events may change how creative is interpreted.

Brands should define acceptable political contexts and proximity in advance, separating established brand-safety violations from advertiser-specific suitability decisions. Controls should address defined risks while preserving relevant inventory, supported by a rapid process for reassessing placements and creative as events evolve.

Current Signals Across PMG Portfolio Support Targeted Adjustments

dependsThe appropriate response will depend on where pressure emerges and how much it affects performance. Broadcast and CTV investment may be worth maintaining where pricing, availability, delivery, and incremental reach remain productive. Consider adjusting bids, targeting, or allocation if changes are sustained or begin to materially affect outcomes.

Across digital channels, an integrated response could mean prioritizing brand and high-intent paid search coverage, evaluating social cost trends alongside sentiment and brand suitability, and considering affiliate timing in the context of conversion patterns and promotional readiness. Technology and AI-enabled monitoring can help teams connect these signals, including changes in organic and AI-search visibility, and evaluate whether they warrant action.

Advertisers should define the conditions for maintaining investment, accepting a temporary premium, or shifting budget so that each response addresses a sustained change in audience delivery or commercial performance rather than an assumed political effect.

After Election Day, the federal lowest unit charge window ends, creating a natural point to reassess supply as holiday demand continues to shape pricing. PMG’s Holiday Signals & Shifts Pulse 3 survey found that 41% of consumers identified finances—including the cost of goods and gifts—as their biggest source of stress or focus during the holiday season.

Price, value, and promotions ranked as the most important shopping consideration for 66% of respondents, ahead of quality at 49%, while 74% described sales as important, including 40% who considered them extremely important (PMG Holiday Signals & Shifts Pulse 3 survey, Dec. 12, 2025). These findings suggest brands should prepare promotional and affiliate partners for demand shaped by heightened price sensitivity, with flexibility to respond to possible election-week delays and subsequent holiday demand.

PMG’s current view is that the midterms are creating a series of local and channel-specific market shifts, each with different implications for advertisers. The value of a cross-channel intelligence view lies in understanding how election dynamics interact with broader Q4 demand and translating those signals into coordinated decisions across audience, media, and creative.

That clarity gives advertisers greater confidence to protect effective investment, pay a premium when priority reach earns it, and use technology and real-time intelligence to move resources toward the audiences and moments with the greatest potential to drive holiday growth.